城镇供热管道隐患辨识研究

近年来,因供热管道老化腐蚀、外部自然环境、施工活动等导致的事故时有发生,给居民的冬季供暖造成了严重的危害和影响。本文在分析供热管道自身安全特性的基础上,运用事故树等系统安全分析方法对供热管道隐患进行辨识分析,结合供热管道影响因素明确隐患辨识重点,并针对隐患排查内容及手段等提出对策建议,以支撑供热管道单位更系统、更科学的开展隐患排查治理工作,保障管线的安全运行。     

少数民族聚集区乡村空间重构的影响机理——以新疆和田地区为例

乡村空间重构不仅是农村现代化的必由之路,还是实现土地集约利用的重要途径。和田地区,经济发展缓慢,其村庄基础设施差,而且由于人口迅速发展,其人地矛盾突出,因此对和田地区进行乡村空间重构势在必行。基于此,本文依据2015年对和田地区入户调查的1 162份问卷,选取了农户的个体特征、家庭特征、职业特征和居住环境特征四个方面的19个影响因素作为自变量,选取农户是否愿意整治作为因变量,运用二元Logistic模型对农户迁居至中心村的影响因素和迁居意愿进行了回归分析。对问卷的统计可知,有64%的被调查者表示接受整治。通过与其他区域的调查对比可知,经济越是发达的地区,其中心村整治的进展越快,农民接受整治的意愿也越强烈。相反,经济越不发达的地区,其中心村整治的进展越缓慢,农民接受搬迁的意愿越低。农户是否愿意接受乡村重构,是农户家庭特征、居民点的基础设施和农户的职业特征共同作用的结果。就农户的家庭特征来看,家庭劳动力数量偏少、家庭年收入越高、耕地面积适中的农户,其搬迁意愿是最强烈的。在农户的职业特征中,愿意参与土地流转、有外出务工经验的农户,其搬迁意愿是最强烈的。在环境特征中,若农户对居住环境和现居住村的建设越不满意、居住环境中需要改善的项目越多,农户的搬迁意愿越强烈。因此,对于和田地区来说,在引导居民集中居住的同时,要引导农户流转土地,促进更多人就业,积极推动特色农业的发展,走农业现代化的道路,以促进农民收入的持续增长。此外,农户对于整治的一个很重要的期望就是改善居住环境,因此在未来的村庄总体建设和规划中,应积极改善村庄内基础设施,并与居住建设同步进行。一直以来,对少数民族聚集区的乡村空间重构的研究比较少。本文对和田地区中心村的研究,是对少数民族地区乡村空间重构研究的重要补充。     

气候变化和人类活动对丹江口入库径流的影响及评估

科学估算气候变化和人类活动对河川径流的影响,可以更为合理地规划利用地球水资源。针对丹江口水库入库径流的减少问题,分别采用Mann-Kendall方法和Pettitt检验,对1960~2012年间丹江口水库入库径流的年际和年内变化趋势进行了分析,并与同时期汉江上游20个地面观测站的降水、气温的年际和年内演化趋势进行了比较,从气候变化和人类活动影响的两个方面分析了入库径流减少的原因。在此基础上,利用气候弹性模型分别估算了气候变化和人类活动对径流的影响度。结果表明:近年来丹江口入库径流的减少主要受春季和秋季径流减少的影响,在春季径流的减少总量中,气候变化的贡献度为67%,人类活动为33%;秋季径流的减少总量中,气候变化的贡献度为88%,人类活动为12%。气候变化是导致丹江口入库径流减少的主要原因。     

2014年于桥水库浮游植物群落与环境因子的关系

为研究于桥水库浮游植物群落结构及其与环境因子的关系,于2014年春夏季进行采样分析。两季共鉴定出浮游植物6门99种,其中绿藻门(Chlorophyta)62种,硅藻门(Diatoms)21种,蓝藻门(Cyanophyta)7种,裸藻门(Euglenophyta)4种,甲藻门(Pyrrophyta)2种,隐藻门(Cryptophyta)2种。春季浮游植物6门86种,第一优势种为绿藻门的四尾栅藻(Scenedesmus quadricauda);夏季浮游植物5门62种,第一优势种为蓝藻门的铜绿微囊藻(Microcystis aeruginosa)。春季浮游植物密度低于夏季,于桥水库浮游植物群落结构具有明显的季节变化规律。RDA分析结果表明,春季采样点的相似性高于夏季,透明度、水温、溶解氧和营养盐是影响于桥水库浮游植物群落组成的关键环境因子。     

南方丘陵地区河谷城市用地时空演变与驱动分析——以上饶市城区为例

以揭示中国南方丘陵地区河谷城市的空间演变过程和特征为目的,以上饶市城区为例,在遥感与GIS技术的支持下,对1988~2013年间上饶市城区城市用地的时空演变过程、特征及驱动影响因素进行了研究。结果表明,1988~2013年的25 a间,上饶市城区城市用地呈现出快速增长的态势,城市形态的演变具有明显的时空特征:时间序列上,不论扩展幅度还是扩展速度,2001~2013年间的值均高于1988~2001年间的值,前后两个时段的扩展特征呈现出明显的差异性;空间格局上,上饶市城区以老城区的中心广场为中心向四周扩展,先后经历了放射性扩展、组团式分散扩展两个阶段,同时呈现出明显的方向分异性,西南和西为其主要扩展方向,而其东南方向的扩展速度最为缓慢。自然环境中的地貌对上饶市城区城市用地的扩展起到很大的限制作用,经济社会的发展、政策规划等因素成为城市用地扩张与时空演化的外在驱动因素。     

Proposing of new building scheme and composite towards global warming mitigation for Malaysia

The building sector has been regarded as a potential sector where there is large capacity to reduce the climate change effect. This study has proposed solutions to mitigate environmental impacts and achieve low CO₂ emission from residential sector. Therefore, full life cycle assessment (LCA) has been run to assess the CO₂ emission and its effect on the atmosphere and climate change. Based on the result, timber scheme is the best choice due to releasing less CO₂ emissions to the atmosphere. However, house builders in Malaysia have almost completely neglected timber as a building material, with timber use as building components reduced to 5%. In this study, LCA Software was used to assess CO₂ emissions from different wall construction. The alternative building scheme has been made by reinforce steel stud, wooden beam and timber wall (S8) to improve the scheme deficiency while releasing less CO₂ emissions compared to other schemes. Therefore, S8 has a decreased CO₂ effect by 85% less than precast concrete frame and 90% less than brick over their lifetime. (S8) increased the load bearing compared to conventional timber beam. Thus, new scheme S8 could be replaced by current scheme and promote more adjustable scheme for Malaysian housing.     

中国碳排放强度的时空演进及跃迁机制

面对气候变化所带来的生存危机以及环境治理的复杂状况,对中国碳排放强度时空演进的动态监测与预警治理的研究是实现碳排放强度下降目标的关键。文章测算1997—2015年中国大陆30个省区碳排放强度的空间面板数据,采用探索性时空数据分析(ESTDA)方法对中国碳排放强度的空间相关性、集聚特征及其时空跃迁进行空间统计分析,借助分位数回归与时空跃迁嵌套模型,揭示在时间和空间推移的双重作用下中国各省区碳排放强度的时空跃迁机制。研究结果表明:(1)中国30个省区的碳排放强度在时空分布上并不是完全随机状态,各个省区碳排放强度之间具有显著的空间相关性特征,碳排放强度的变动趋势会受到其相临近省区碳排放强度的影响,省域间的碳排放强度在空间分布上呈现"集聚"与"分异"并存的时空演进特征。(2)中国碳排放强度空间集聚趋势增强,具有高度的凝固性和较低的流动性,10个高碳排放强度省区碳排放强度的稳定性将成为制约中国碳排放强度整体跃迁的重点省区,相关省区的跃迁性将成为驱动中国碳排放强度整体跃迁的关键省区。(3)各省区的碳排放强度空间集聚过程中存在时空跃迁的驱动模式和制约模式,分位数回归模型能够很好地解释各驱动因素对碳排放强度时空跃迁的驱动机制,不同响应阶段的驱动因素的分位数与碳排放强度时空跃迁类型之间具有很强的嵌套性。(4)根据各省区碳排放强度时空演进及其跃迁机制的分析结果,进一步提出加强对关键省区碳排放强度的有效监测与治理,加大碳排放的约束力度等差异化的碳减排调控措施。     

Making cities resilient to climate change: identifying “win–win” interventions

Urbanisation is truly a global phenomenon. Starting at 39% in 1980, the urbanisation level rose to 52% in 2011. Ongoing rapid urbanisation has led to increase in urban greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Urban climate change risks have also increased with increase in climate-induced extreme weather events and more low-income urban dwellers living in climate sensitive locations. Despite increased emissions, including GHGs and heightened climate change vulnerability, climate mitigation and adaptation actions are rare in the cities of developing countries. Cities are overwhelmed with worsening congestion, air pollution, crime, waste management, and unemployment problems. Lack of resources and capacity constraints are other factors that discourage cities from embarking on climate change mitigation and adaptation pathways. Given the multitude of problems faced, there is simply no appetite for stand-alone urban climate change mitigation and adaptation policies and programmes. Urban mitigation and adaptation goals will have to be achieved as co-benefits of interventions targeted at solving pressing urban problems and challenges. The paper identifies administratively simple urban interventions that can help cities solve some of their pressing service delivery and urban environmental problems, while simultaneously mitigating rising urban GHG emissions and vulnerability to climate change.     

Collaborative approaches to local climate change and clean energy initiatives in the USA and England

This paper analyses how 10 localities in the USA and England, recognised as leaders in clean energy and climate action, have used collaborative approaches to develop local climate change plans and energy conservation, efficiency, and renewable energy initiatives. It examines these planning and policy-making processes in the context of Margerum's [2008. A typology of collaboration efforts in environmental management. Environmental Management, 41 (4), 487–500] typology of “action”, “organizational”, and “policy-level” collaborations, as well as Gray's [1989. Collaborating: finding common ground for multiparty problems. San Francisco: Jossey-Bass] classification of collaboration in the “problem-setting”, “direction-setting”, and “implementation” phases. We conducted interviews with local elected officials, municipal staff, energy professionals, and citizen volunteers in each community, supplemented with an analysis of their adopted energy, climate change, and land-use plans. We find that despite the different government structures and political contexts between the two countries, there was a surprising amount of commonality in how the case study localities used collaborative planning to develop local climate plans and clean energy initiatives. These processes were most often initiated by local elected officials and/or high-level staff members, and then carried out in collaboration with local third-sector organisations and other community stakeholders. In the USA, collaboration was strongest at the policy level and in the direction-setting phase, with the distinguishing feature that citizen advisory boards or stakeholder working groups often took a more active role in shaping local plans and policies. The English localities had some of those same types of collaborations, but were more likely to also employ action collaboration, in the implementation phase, in which third-sector organisations coordinated with the locality to directly provide clean energy services.     

特朗普“去气候化”政策对全球气候治理的影响

美国特朗普政府宣布退出《巴黎协定》是当前全球气候治理中最受舆论关注的问题,对事态发展趋势的判断和事件影响的评估是最为亟需的。本文系统分析了特朗普政府上任后推行的一系列"去气候化"政策,以及其退出《巴黎协定》的主要动因和可能形式,同时量化评估了这些内政外交的"倒退"对美国实施国家自主贡献目标以及全球气候治理格局的实质影响,并据此提出了中国应对全球气候治理新形势变化的对策和建议。研究表明,特朗普政府"美国优先"的能源政策根植于复兴制造业和加大基础设施投资的经济利益动机,随着特朗普"去气候化"进程持续发酵,诸多气候政策面临存续风险,美国实施国家自主贡献将面临严峻挑战,"倒行政策"将有可能使美国温室气体排放出现反弹。如果不考虑中、高危气候政策,美国2025年温室气体排放也仅能相对2005年下降11.0%—14.9%,距离下降26%—28%的国家自主贡献目标相去甚远。同时,特朗普政府拒绝继续履行向发展中国家提供气候资金支持的义务,将有可能导致绿色气候基金拖欠资金总额上升117%,并进一步挫伤全球低碳投资的信心。没有美国的全球气候治理3.0时代将呈现出新的复杂特征,并不可避免地造成减排、资金和领导力缺口的持续扩大,也不排除后续会出现消极的跟随者,整体进程将可能进入一个低潮周期。虽然国际社会对中国引领全球气候治理充满期待,但中国仍应审慎对待,长远谋划应对气候变化的内政外交战略,而不应将"气候举旗"看作是一蹴而就的短期策略,对各种要求中国发挥"领导作用"的说法保持清醒头脑。在今后气候谈判中,美国仍有较大可能会二次"要价",中国作为排放大国的压力依然不容小觑,中美气候关系需要再定位。